Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

185 Stock  EUR 35.30  0.40  1.12%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 33.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.99. Alcoa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alcoa Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Alcoa Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Alcoa Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Alcoa Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alcoa Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 33.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 1.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 63.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alcoa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alcoa Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Alcoa Corp Stock Forecast Pattern

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Alcoa Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Alcoa Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alcoa Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.36 and 36.90, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
35.30
33.63
Expected Value
36.90
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alcoa Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alcoa Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6127
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.0489
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0272
SAESum of the absolute errors63.9853
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Alcoa Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Alcoa Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Alcoa Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcoa Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
32.0335.3038.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.1137.3840.65
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Alcoa Corp

For every potential investor in Alcoa, whether a beginner or expert, Alcoa Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alcoa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alcoa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alcoa Corp's price trends.

Alcoa Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alcoa Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alcoa Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alcoa Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alcoa Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alcoa Corp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alcoa Corp's current price.

Alcoa Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alcoa Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alcoa Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alcoa Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alcoa Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Alcoa Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Alcoa Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alcoa Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alcoa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alcoa Stock

When determining whether Alcoa Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alcoa Corp's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alcoa Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alcoa Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alcoa Corp to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Alcoa Stock please use our How to Invest in Alcoa Corp guide.
You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alcoa Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.