UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.94
| 0VD0 Stock | 11.50 0.10 0.88% |
UNIVMUSIC |
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 Target Price Odds to finish below 9.94
The tendency of UNIVMUSIC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 9.94 or more in 90 days |
| 11.50 | 90 days | 9.94 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 to drop to 9.94 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 probability density function shows the probability of UNIVMUSIC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 price to stay between 9.94 and its current price of 11.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 67.5 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 has a beta of 0.18. This suggests as returns on the market go up, UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 has an alpha of 0.0082, implying that it can generate a 0.00823 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 Technical Analysis
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UNIVMUSIC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050. In general, you should focus on analyzing UNIVMUSIC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 Predictive Forecast Models
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050's time-series forecasting models is one of many UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in UNIVMUSIC Stock
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 financial ratios help investors to determine whether UNIVMUSIC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UNIVMUSIC with respect to the benefits of owning UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 security.