UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

0VD0 Stock   13.20  0.40  2.94%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 on the next trading day is expected to be 13.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.48. UNIVMUSIC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 on the next trading day is expected to be 13.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UNIVMUSIC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.40 and 15.37, respectively. We have considered UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.20
13.89
Expected Value
15.37
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1882
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3193
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0253
SAESum of the absolute errors19.4768
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.7113.2014.69
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
11.4912.9814.47
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.8413.5914.34
Details

Other Forecasting Options for UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050

For every potential investor in UNIVMUSIC, whether a beginner or expert, UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UNIVMUSIC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UNIVMUSIC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's price trends.

UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's current price.

UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Risk Indicators

The analysis of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting univmusic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in UNIVMUSIC Stock

UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 financial ratios help investors to determine whether UNIVMUSIC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UNIVMUSIC with respect to the benefits of owning UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 security.