UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 12.70
| 0VD0 Stock | 13.20 0.40 2.94% |
UNIVMUSIC |
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Target Price Odds to finish over 12.70
The tendency of UNIVMUSIC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 12.70 in 90 days |
| 13.20 | 90 days | 12.70 | about 36.54 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 to stay above 12.70 in 90 days from now is about 36.54 (This UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 probability density function shows the probability of UNIVMUSIC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 price to stay between 12.70 and its current price of 13.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 17.64 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 has a beta of 0.3. This suggests as returns on the market go up, UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050 has an alpha of 0.2951, implying that it can generate a 0.3 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.30 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.23 |
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Technical Analysis
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UNIVMUSIC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UNIVMUSIC GRPADR050. In general, you should focus on analyzing UNIVMUSIC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 Predictive Forecast Models
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's time-series forecasting models is one of many UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in UNIVMUSIC Stock
UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 financial ratios help investors to determine whether UNIVMUSIC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UNIVMUSIC with respect to the benefits of owning UNIVMUSIC GRPADR/050 security.