Aerospace (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5.95
| 000901 Stock | 12.05 0.37 3.17% |
Aerospace |
Aerospace Target Price Odds to finish below 5.95
The tendency of Aerospace Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 5.95 or more in 90 days |
| 12.05 | 90 days | 5.95 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aerospace to drop to 5.95 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Aerospace Hi Tech Holding probability density function shows the probability of Aerospace Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aerospace Hi Tech price to stay between 5.95 and its current price of 12.05 at the end of the 90-day period is about 63.69 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aerospace Hi Tech Holding has a beta of -0.0839. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aerospace are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aerospace Hi Tech Holding is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aerospace Hi Tech Holding has an alpha of 0.4306, implying that it can generate a 0.43 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Aerospace Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aerospace
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aerospace Hi Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aerospace Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aerospace is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aerospace's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aerospace Hi Tech Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aerospace within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Aerospace Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aerospace for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aerospace Hi Tech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aerospace Hi Tech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 6.8 B. Net Loss for the year was (145.74 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.02 B. | |
| About 36.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Quantbot Technologies LP Cuts Holdings in Howmet Aerospace Inc. - MarketBeat |
Aerospace Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aerospace Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aerospace's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aerospace's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 798.2 M |
Aerospace Technical Analysis
Aerospace's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aerospace Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aerospace Hi Tech Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aerospace Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aerospace Predictive Forecast Models
Aerospace's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aerospace's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aerospace's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aerospace Hi Tech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aerospace for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aerospace Hi Tech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aerospace Hi Tech appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the revenue of 6.8 B. Net Loss for the year was (145.74 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.02 B. | |
| About 36.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Quantbot Technologies LP Cuts Holdings in Howmet Aerospace Inc. - MarketBeat |
Other Information on Investing in Aerospace Stock
Aerospace financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aerospace Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aerospace with respect to the benefits of owning Aerospace security.