SP 500 Index Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for SP 500 - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When SP 500 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in SP 500 price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of SP 500 MINI.

SP 500 Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of SP 500 MINI on the next trading day is expected to be 586.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.18, mean absolute percentage error of 20.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 190.73.

SP 500 Index Forecast Pattern

SP 500 Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SP 500 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SP 500 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past SP 500 observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older SP 500 MINI observations.

Predictive Modules for SP 500

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SP 500 MINI. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for SP 500

For every potential investor in XSP, whether a beginner or expert, SP 500's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. XSP Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in XSP. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SP 500's price trends.

SP 500 Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

SP 500 MINI Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SP 500's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SP 500's current price.

SP 500 Market Strength Events

SP 500 Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.