Direxion Daily Etf Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

WEBL Etf  USD 30.83  0.71  2.25%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily Dow on the next trading day is expected to be 31.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.15. Direxion Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Direxion Daily works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Direxion Daily Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Direxion Daily Dow on the next trading day is expected to be 31.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Direxion Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Direxion Daily's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Direxion Daily Etf Forecast Pattern

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Direxion Daily Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Direxion Daily's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Direxion Daily's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.93 and 34.07, respectively. We have considered Direxion Daily's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.83
31.00
Expected Value
34.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Direxion Daily etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Direxion Daily etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0446
MADMean absolute deviation0.5449
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0227
SAESum of the absolute errors32.15
When Direxion Daily Dow prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Direxion Daily Dow trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Direxion Daily observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Direxion Daily

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Daily Dow. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.1031.1634.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.8431.9034.96
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
25.6329.3133.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Direxion Daily. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Direxion Daily's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Direxion Daily's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Direxion Daily Dow.

Other Forecasting Options for Direxion Daily

For every potential investor in Direxion, whether a beginner or expert, Direxion Daily's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Direxion Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Direxion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Direxion Daily's price trends.

Direxion Daily Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Direxion Daily etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Direxion Daily could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Direxion Daily by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Direxion Daily Dow Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Direxion Daily's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Direxion Daily's current price.

Direxion Daily Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Direxion Daily etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Direxion Daily shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Direxion Daily etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Direxion Daily Dow entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Direxion Daily Risk Indicators

The analysis of Direxion Daily's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Direxion Daily's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting direxion etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Direxion Daily Dow is a strong investment it is important to analyze Direxion Daily's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Direxion Daily's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Direxion Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Direxion Daily to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
The market value of Direxion Daily Dow is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Direxion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Direxion Daily's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Direxion Daily's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Direxion Daily's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Direxion Daily's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Direxion Daily's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Direxion Daily is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Direxion Daily's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.