Vision Marine Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VMAR Stock  USD 0.73  0.02  2.67%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vision Marine Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 0.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.25. Vision Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Vision Marine's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vision Marine's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vision Marine fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Vision Marine's Fixed Asset Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 02/27/2025, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.58, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 0.40. . As of 02/27/2025, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 9.5 M. In addition to that, Net Loss is likely to grow to about (11.2 M).

Vision Marine Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Vision Marine's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
56.8 K
Current Value
54 K
Quarterly Volatility
4.7 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Vision Marine is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Vision Marine Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Vision Marine Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vision Marine Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 0.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vision Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vision Marine's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vision Marine Stock Forecast Pattern

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Vision Marine Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vision Marine's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vision Marine's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 11.42, respectively. We have considered Vision Marine's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.73
0.77
Expected Value
11.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vision Marine stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vision Marine stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9274
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1008
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0677
SAESum of the absolute errors6.2484
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Vision Marine Technologies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Vision Marine. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Vision Marine

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vision Marine Techno. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.7011.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.6665.3676.01
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
235.96259.29287.81
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vision Marine. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vision Marine's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vision Marine's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vision Marine Techno.

Other Forecasting Options for Vision Marine

For every potential investor in Vision, whether a beginner or expert, Vision Marine's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vision Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vision. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vision Marine's price trends.

Vision Marine Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vision Marine stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vision Marine could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vision Marine by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vision Marine Techno Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vision Marine's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vision Marine's current price.

Vision Marine Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vision Marine stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vision Marine shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vision Marine stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vision Marine Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vision Marine Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vision Marine's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vision Marine's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vision stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Additional Tools for Vision Stock Analysis

When running Vision Marine's price analysis, check to measure Vision Marine's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vision Marine is operating at the current time. Most of Vision Marine's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vision Marine's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vision Marine's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vision Marine to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.