Vanguard 500 Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

A four-period moving average forecast model for Vanguard 500 Index is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Vanguard 500 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 19th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Vanguard 500 Index on the next trading day is expected to be 297.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.01, mean absolute percentage error of 7.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.59.

Vanguard 500 Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vanguard 500

Vanguard 500 Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Vanguard 500 Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vanguard 500 mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vanguard 500 mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Vanguard 500. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Vanguard 500 Index and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Vanguard 500

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard 500 Index. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 296.20 296.84 297.48 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 267.16 310.90 311.54 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 278.54 290.01 301.48 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard 500

For every potential investor in Vanguard, whether a beginner or expert, Vanguard 500's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vanguard Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vanguard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vanguard 500's price trends.

Vanguard 500 Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Vanguard 500 Index Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vanguard 500's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vanguard 500's current price.

Vanguard 500 Market Strength Events

Vanguard 500 Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund