Valneva SE Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

VALN Stock  USD 6.79  0.24  3.41%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valneva SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 6.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.87. Valneva Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Valneva SE's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Valneva SE's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Valneva SE fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Valneva SE's Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 14th of March 2025, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 5.94, while Asset Turnover is likely to drop 0.21. . As of the 14th of March 2025, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 167.4 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (62.8 M).

Valneva SE Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Valneva SE's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2009-12-31
Previous Quarter
131.4 M
Current Value
156.3 M
Quarterly Volatility
96.5 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Valneva SE is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Valneva SE ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Valneva SE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2025

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valneva SE ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 6.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.87.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valneva Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valneva SE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Valneva SE Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Valneva SEValneva SE Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Valneva SE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Valneva SE's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valneva SE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.14 and 12.65, respectively. We have considered Valneva SE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.79
6.90
Expected Value
12.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valneva SE stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valneva SE stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9715
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2882
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0529
SAESum of the absolute errors17.8655
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Valneva SE ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Valneva SE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Valneva SE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valneva SE ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.986.7412.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.198.9514.71
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
14.4215.8517.59
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.06-0.020.02
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Valneva SE

For every potential investor in Valneva, whether a beginner or expert, Valneva SE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valneva Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valneva. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valneva SE's price trends.

View Valneva SE Related Equities

 Risk & Return  Correlation

Valneva SE ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valneva SE's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valneva SE's current price.

Valneva SE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valneva SE stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valneva SE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valneva SE stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valneva SE ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Valneva SE Risk Indicators

The analysis of Valneva SE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valneva SE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valneva stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
When determining whether Valneva SE ADR offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valneva SE's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valneva Se Adr Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valneva Se Adr Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valneva SE to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valneva SE. If investors know Valneva will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valneva SE listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.13)
Revenue Per Share
2.3
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.204
Return On Assets
(0.11)
Return On Equity
(0.04)
The market value of Valneva SE ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valneva that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valneva SE's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valneva SE's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valneva SE's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valneva SE's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valneva SE's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valneva SE is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valneva SE's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.