Vale SA Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| VALE Stock | USD 9.79 0.07 0.71% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vale SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 9.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.36. Vale Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vale SA stock prices and determine the direction of Vale SA ADR's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vale SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Vale |
Vale SA Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vale SA ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 9.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vale Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vale SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vale SA Stock Forecast Pattern
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Vale SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vale SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vale SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.77 and 11.83, respectively. We have considered Vale SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vale SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vale SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0159 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1586 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.36 |
Predictive Modules for Vale SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vale SA ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Vale SA
For every potential investor in Vale, whether a beginner or expert, Vale SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vale Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vale. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vale SA's price trends.Vale SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vale SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vale SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vale SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vale SA ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vale SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vale SA's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Vale SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vale SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vale SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vale SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vale SA ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 385103.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.58) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.07) |
Vale SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vale SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vale SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vale stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Variance | 4.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Vale SA ADR is a strong investment it is important to analyze Vale SA's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Vale SA's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Vale Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vale SA to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vale SA. If investors know Vale will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vale SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Dividend Share 1.78 | Earnings Share 2.16 | Revenue Per Share 49.29 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.02 |
The market value of Vale SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vale that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vale SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vale SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vale SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vale SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vale SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vale SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vale SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.