Valero Energy Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| V1L Stock | EUR 117.58 3.66 3.21% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 117.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.50. Valero Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Valero Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Valero |
Valero Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Valero Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 117.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.86, mean absolute percentage error of 6.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valero Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valero Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valero Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valero Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valero Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9668 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.058 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8607 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 113.5 |
Predictive Modules for Valero Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valero Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Valero Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valero Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valero Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valero Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valero Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valero Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valero Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valero Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valero Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 117.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 117.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.83 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 3.66 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.28 |
Valero Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valero Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valero Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valero stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Variance | 3.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Valero Stock
When determining whether Valero Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Valero Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Valero Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Valero Energy Stock:Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.