Aquila Tax-free Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

UTAYX Fund  USD 9.76  0.02  0.21%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aquila Tax Free Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 9.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.05. Aquila Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Aquila Tax-free is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aquila Tax Free Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aquila Tax-free Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aquila Tax Free Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 9.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aquila Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aquila Tax-free's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aquila Tax-free Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Aquila Tax-free Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aquila Tax-free's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aquila Tax-free's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.57 and 9.95, respectively. We have considered Aquila Tax-free's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.76
9.76
Expected Value
9.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aquila Tax-free mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aquila Tax-free mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.3774
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0173
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0018
SAESum of the absolute errors1.0523
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aquila Tax Free Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aquila Tax-free. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aquila Tax-free

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aquila Tax Free. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aquila Tax-free's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.579.769.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.559.749.93
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Aquila Tax-free

For every potential investor in Aquila, whether a beginner or expert, Aquila Tax-free's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aquila Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aquila. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aquila Tax-free's price trends.

Aquila Tax-free Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aquila Tax-free mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aquila Tax-free could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aquila Tax-free by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aquila Tax Free Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aquila Tax-free's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aquila Tax-free's current price.

Aquila Tax-free Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aquila Tax-free mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aquila Tax-free shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aquila Tax-free mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aquila Tax Free Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aquila Tax-free Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aquila Tax-free's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aquila Tax-free's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aquila mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Aquila Mutual Fund

Aquila Tax-free financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aquila Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aquila with respect to the benefits of owning Aquila Tax-free security.
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