SOUTHERN Forecast - Naive Prediction

84265VAA3   118.10  4.92  4.35%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SOUTHERN PER CORP on the next trading day is expected to be 117.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.41. SOUTHERN Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SOUTHERN stock prices and determine the direction of SOUTHERN PER CORP's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SOUTHERN's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for SOUTHERN is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of SOUTHERN PER CORP value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

SOUTHERN Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SOUTHERN PER CORP on the next trading day is expected to be 117.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86, mean absolute percentage error of 1.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SOUTHERN Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SOUTHERN's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SOUTHERN Bond Forecast Pattern

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JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15SOUTHERN PER P SOUTHERN PER P forecast
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SOUTHERN Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SOUTHERN's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SOUTHERN's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 116.20 and 118.30, respectively. We have considered SOUTHERN's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
118.10
116.20
Downside
117.25
Expected Value
118.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SOUTHERN bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SOUTHERN bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.6071
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8614
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0075
SAESum of the absolute errors53.4098
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of SOUTHERN PER CORP. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict SOUTHERN. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for SOUTHERN

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SOUTHERN PER P. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
117.31118.10118.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
96.5497.33129.91
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
110.73115.30119.87
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SOUTHERN. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SOUTHERN's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SOUTHERN's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in SOUTHERN PER P.

Other Forecasting Options for SOUTHERN

For every potential investor in SOUTHERN, whether a beginner or expert, SOUTHERN's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SOUTHERN Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SOUTHERN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SOUTHERN's price trends.

SOUTHERN Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SOUTHERN bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SOUTHERN could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SOUTHERN by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SOUTHERN PER P Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SOUTHERN's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SOUTHERN's current price.

SOUTHERN Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SOUTHERN bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SOUTHERN shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SOUTHERN bond market strength indicators, traders can identify SOUTHERN PER CORP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SOUTHERN Risk Indicators

The analysis of SOUTHERN's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SOUTHERN's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of SOUTHERN PER CORP bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in SOUTHERN Bond

SOUTHERN financial ratios help investors to determine whether SOUTHERN Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SOUTHERN with respect to the benefits of owning SOUTHERN security.

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