TSR Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for TSR is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of TSR Inc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of TSR Inc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict TSR. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for TSR

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TSR Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

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