True North Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

TNT-UN Stock  CAD 8.38  0.13  1.58%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of True North Commercial on the next trading day is expected to be 8.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.93. True Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast True North stock prices and determine the direction of True North Commercial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of True North's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, True North's Inventory Turnover is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Payables Turnover is expected to grow to 3.15, whereas Receivables Turnover is forecasted to decline to 23.06. . The current year's Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to grow to about 23.6 M. The current year's Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to grow to about 27.8 M.
Triple exponential smoothing for True North - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When True North prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in True North price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of True North Commercial.

True North Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of True North Commercial on the next trading day is expected to be 8.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.93.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict True Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that True North's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

True North Stock Forecast Pattern

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True North Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting True North's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. True North's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.38 and 10.26, respectively. We have considered True North's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.38
8.32
Expected Value
10.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of True North stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent True North stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0293
MADMean absolute deviation0.1488
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0152
SAESum of the absolute errors8.9298
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past True North observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older True North Commercial observations.

Predictive Modules for True North

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as True North Commercial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of True North's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.408.3410.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
7.129.0611.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for True North

For every potential investor in True, whether a beginner or expert, True North's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. True Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in True. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying True North's price trends.

True North Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with True North stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of True North could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing True North by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

True North Commercial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of True North's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of True North's current price.

True North Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how True North stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading True North shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying True North stock market strength indicators, traders can identify True North Commercial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

True North Risk Indicators

The analysis of True North's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in True North's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting true stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Other Information on Investing in True Stock

True North financial ratios help investors to determine whether True Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in True with respect to the benefits of owning True North security.