Smith Wesson Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SWBI Stock | USD 13.53 0.19 1.38% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Wesson Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 13.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.05. Smith Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smith Wesson's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Smith |
Smith Wesson Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Wesson Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 13.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith Wesson's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smith Wesson Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smith Wesson | Smith Wesson Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Smith Wesson Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smith Wesson's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smith Wesson's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.36 and 15.70, respectively. We have considered Smith Wesson's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith Wesson stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith Wesson stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3487 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0228 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1842 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.05 |
Predictive Modules for Smith Wesson
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Wesson Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Smith Wesson
For every potential investor in Smith, whether a beginner or expert, Smith Wesson's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smith Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smith Wesson's price trends.View Smith Wesson Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smith Wesson Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Smith Wesson's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Smith Wesson's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith Wesson Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smith Wesson stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smith Wesson shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smith Wesson stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smith Wesson Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Smith Wesson Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smith Wesson's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smith Wesson's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smith stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Variance | 4.6 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Smith Wesson Brands offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Smith Wesson's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Smith Wesson Brands Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Smith Wesson Brands Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Wesson to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Wesson. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smith Wesson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.047 | Dividend Share 0.49 | Earnings Share 0.74 | Revenue Per Share 11.178 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.23) |
The market value of Smith Wesson Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Wesson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Wesson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smith Wesson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Wesson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Wesson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Wesson is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Wesson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.