Shurgard Self Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SHUR Stock | 32.65 0.30 0.93% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shurgard Self Storage on the next trading day is expected to be 32.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.60. Shurgard Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Shurgard |
Shurgard Self Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of March 2025
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Shurgard Self Storage on the next trading day is expected to be 32.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shurgard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shurgard Self's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Shurgard Self Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Shurgard Self | Shurgard Self Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Shurgard Self Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Shurgard Self's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shurgard Self's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.55 and 33.91, respectively. We have considered Shurgard Self's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shurgard Self stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shurgard Self stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5256 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6548 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0189 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.5983 |
Predictive Modules for Shurgard Self
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shurgard Self Storage. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Shurgard Self
For every potential investor in Shurgard, whether a beginner or expert, Shurgard Self's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shurgard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shurgard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shurgard Self's price trends.Shurgard Self Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shurgard Self stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shurgard Self could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shurgard Self by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Shurgard Self Storage Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shurgard Self's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shurgard Self's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Shurgard Self Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shurgard Self stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shurgard Self shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shurgard Self stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shurgard Self Storage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 829.13 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4615 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 32.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 32.57 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.27 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.3 |
Shurgard Self Risk Indicators
The analysis of Shurgard Self's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shurgard Self's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shurgard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Variance | 2.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Shurgard Self
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Shurgard Self position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Shurgard Self will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Shurgard Stock
Moving against Shurgard Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Shurgard Self could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Shurgard Self when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Shurgard Self - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Shurgard Self Storage to buy it.
The correlation of Shurgard Self is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Shurgard Self moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Shurgard Self Storage moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Shurgard Self can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Shurgard Stock Analysis
When running Shurgard Self's price analysis, check to measure Shurgard Self's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shurgard Self is operating at the current time. Most of Shurgard Self's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shurgard Self's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shurgard Self's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shurgard Self to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.