Saraswanti Anugerah Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SAMF Stock | IDR 810.00 10.00 1.25% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur on the next trading day is expected to be 827.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 471.60. Saraswanti Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Saraswanti |
Saraswanti Anugerah Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur on the next trading day is expected to be 827.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.73, mean absolute percentage error of 111.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 471.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Saraswanti Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Saraswanti Anugerah's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Saraswanti Anugerah Stock Forecast Pattern
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Saraswanti Anugerah Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Saraswanti Anugerah's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Saraswanti Anugerah's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 826.26 and 828.97, respectively. We have considered Saraswanti Anugerah's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Saraswanti Anugerah stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Saraswanti Anugerah stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.8227 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.7311 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.01 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 471.5982 |
Predictive Modules for Saraswanti Anugerah
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saraswanti Anugerah. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Saraswanti Anugerah
For every potential investor in Saraswanti, whether a beginner or expert, Saraswanti Anugerah's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Saraswanti Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Saraswanti. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Saraswanti Anugerah's price trends.Saraswanti Anugerah Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Saraswanti Anugerah stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Saraswanti Anugerah could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Saraswanti Anugerah by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Saraswanti Anugerah Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Saraswanti Anugerah's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Saraswanti Anugerah's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Saraswanti Anugerah Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Saraswanti Anugerah stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Saraswanti Anugerah shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Saraswanti Anugerah stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Saraswanti Anugerah Risk Indicators
The analysis of Saraswanti Anugerah's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Saraswanti Anugerah's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting saraswanti stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7339 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.74 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Saraswanti Anugerah financial ratios help investors to determine whether Saraswanti Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Saraswanti with respect to the benefits of owning Saraswanti Anugerah security.