Silicon Motion Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| S9M Stock | 49.20 0.20 0.40% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Silicon Motion Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 47.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.79. Silicon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Silicon |
Silicon Motion Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Silicon Motion Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 47.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Silicon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Silicon Motion's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Silicon Motion Stock Forecast Pattern
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Silicon Motion Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Silicon Motion's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Silicon Motion's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.58 and 50.16, respectively. We have considered Silicon Motion's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Silicon Motion stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Silicon Motion stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3769 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.931 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 56.7918 |
Predictive Modules for Silicon Motion
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Silicon Motion Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Silicon Motion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Silicon Motion
For every potential investor in Silicon, whether a beginner or expert, Silicon Motion's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Silicon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Silicon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Silicon Motion's price trends.Silicon Motion Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Silicon Motion stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Silicon Motion could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Silicon Motion by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Silicon Motion Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Silicon Motion's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Silicon Motion's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Silicon Motion Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Silicon Motion stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Silicon Motion shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Silicon Motion stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Silicon Motion Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Silicon Motion Risk Indicators
The analysis of Silicon Motion's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Silicon Motion's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting silicon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.49 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Silicon Stock Analysis
When running Silicon Motion's price analysis, check to measure Silicon Motion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Silicon Motion is operating at the current time. Most of Silicon Motion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Silicon Motion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Silicon Motion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Silicon Motion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.