Quidel Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| QDEL Stock | USD 41.35 0.25 0.60% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Quidel on the next trading day is expected to be 40.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.01. Quidel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Quidel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Quidel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Quidel fundamentals over time.
Quidel |
Quidel 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Quidel on the next trading day is expected to be 40.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.53, mean absolute percentage error of 3.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 81.01.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Quidel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Quidel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Quidel Stock Forecast Pattern
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Quidel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Quidel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Quidel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.99 and 43.17, respectively. We have considered Quidel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Quidel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Quidel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 104.6108 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3409 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5285 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0381 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 81.0088 |
Predictive Modules for Quidel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Quidel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Quidel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Quidel
For every potential investor in Quidel, whether a beginner or expert, Quidel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Quidel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Quidel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Quidel's price trends.View Quidel Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Quidel Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Quidel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Quidel's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Quidel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Quidel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Quidel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Quidel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Quidel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Quidel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Quidel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Quidel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting quidel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Variance | 9.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Quidel to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Quidel Stock please use our How to buy in Quidel Stock guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Health Care Equipment & Supplies space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Quidel. If investors know Quidel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Quidel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | Earnings Share (27.81) | Revenue Per Share 42.04 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0104 |
The market value of Quidel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Quidel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Quidel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Quidel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Quidel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Quidel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Quidel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Quidel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Quidel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.