Bank Negara Pink Sheet Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

PTBRY Stock  USD 14.63  0.36  2.40%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bank Negara Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 15.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.99. Bank Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Bank Negara is based on an artificially constructed time series of Bank Negara daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Bank Negara 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bank Negara Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 15.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81, mean absolute percentage error of 0.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.99.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Negara's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bank Negara Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Bank Negara Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bank Negara's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Negara's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.44 and 20.23, respectively. We have considered Bank Negara's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.63
15.33
Expected Value
20.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Negara pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Negara pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.4001
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2652
MADMean absolute deviation0.8112
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0483
SAESum of the absolute errors42.9937
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Bank Negara Indonesia 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Bank Negara

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Negara Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.4614.4119.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.3213.2718.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
14.2715.6617.05
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Bank Negara

For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Negara's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Negara's price trends.

Bank Negara Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Negara pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Negara could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Negara by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bank Negara Indonesia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Negara's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Negara's current price.

Bank Negara Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Negara pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Negara shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Negara pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Negara Indonesia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bank Negara Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bank Negara's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Negara's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Bank Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Bank Negara's price analysis, check to measure Bank Negara's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bank Negara is operating at the current time. Most of Bank Negara's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bank Negara's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bank Negara's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bank Negara to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.