Pharming Group Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PHAR Stock | USD 7.47 0.08 1.06% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pharming Group NV on the next trading day is expected to be 7.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.79. Pharming Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Pharming Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Pharming Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Pharming Group fundamentals over time.
Pharming |
Pharming Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pharming Group NV on the next trading day is expected to be 7.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pharming Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pharming Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pharming Group Stock Forecast Pattern
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Pharming Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pharming Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pharming Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.35 and 10.60, respectively. We have considered Pharming Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pharming Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pharming Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4696 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0103 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1965 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0241 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.7912 |
Predictive Modules for Pharming Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pharming Group NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Pharming Group
For every potential investor in Pharming, whether a beginner or expert, Pharming Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pharming Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pharming. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pharming Group's price trends.View Pharming Group Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pharming Group NV Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pharming Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pharming Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Pharming Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pharming Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pharming Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pharming Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pharming Group NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Pharming Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pharming Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pharming Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pharming stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Variance | 9.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Additional Tools for Pharming Stock Analysis
When running Pharming Group's price analysis, check to measure Pharming Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pharming Group is operating at the current time. Most of Pharming Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pharming Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pharming Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pharming Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.