Pratama Abadi Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

PANI Stock   11,175  825.00  7.97%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pratama Abadi Nusa on the next trading day is expected to be 11,175 with a mean absolute deviation of 585.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35,150. Pratama Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Pratama Abadi simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Pratama Abadi Nusa are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Pratama Abadi Nusa prices get older.

Pratama Abadi Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of February 2025

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pratama Abadi Nusa on the next trading day is expected to be 11,175 with a mean absolute deviation of 585.83, mean absolute percentage error of 706,875, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35,150.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pratama Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pratama Abadi's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pratama Abadi Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Nov 19Nov 28Dec 6Dec 16Dec 24Jan 7Jan 15Jan 23Feb 5Feb 1310,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Pratama Abadi Nusa Pratama Abadi Nusa forecast
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Pratama Abadi Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pratama Abadi's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pratama Abadi's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11,169 and 11,181, respectively. We have considered Pratama Abadi's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11,175
11,169
Downside
11,175
Expected Value
11,181
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pratama Abadi stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pratama Abadi stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria129.7412
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 75.8333
MADMean absolute deviation585.8333
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0413
SAESum of the absolute errors35150.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Pratama Abadi Nusa forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Pratama Abadi observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Pratama Abadi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pratama Abadi Nusa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11,16911,17511,181
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10,80410,81012,292
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8,50212,85517,208
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Pratama Abadi

For every potential investor in Pratama, whether a beginner or expert, Pratama Abadi's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pratama Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pratama. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pratama Abadi's price trends.

Pratama Abadi Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pratama Abadi stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pratama Abadi could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pratama Abadi by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pratama Abadi Nusa Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pratama Abadi's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pratama Abadi's current price.

Pratama Abadi Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pratama Abadi stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pratama Abadi shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pratama Abadi stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pratama Abadi Nusa entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pratama Abadi Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pratama Abadi's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pratama Abadi's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pratama stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Pratama Stock

Pratama Abadi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pratama Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pratama with respect to the benefits of owning Pratama Abadi security.
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