Pan African Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PAN Stock   854.00  6.00  0.71%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pan African Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 852.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 923.32. Pan Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Pan African stock prices and determine the direction of Pan African Resources's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Pan African's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Pan African - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Pan African prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Pan African price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Pan African Resources.

Pan African Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pan African Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 852.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 15.65, mean absolute percentage error of 387.22, and the sum of the absolute errors of 923.32.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pan Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pan African's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Pan African Stock Forecast Pattern

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Pan African Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Pan African's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pan African's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 849.61 and 854.39, respectively. We have considered Pan African's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
854.00
849.61
Downside
852.00
Expected Value
854.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pan African stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pan African stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -4.7797
MADMean absolute deviation15.6495
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0198
SAESum of the absolute errors923.32
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Pan African observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Pan African Resources observations.

Predictive Modules for Pan African

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pan African Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
845.61848.00850.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
811.36813.75932.80
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
780.62811.36842.11
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Pan African

For every potential investor in Pan, whether a beginner or expert, Pan African's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pan Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pan. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pan African's price trends.

Pan African Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pan African stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pan African could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pan African by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Pan African Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Pan African's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Pan African's current price.

Pan African Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pan African stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pan African shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pan African stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pan African Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Pan African Risk Indicators

The analysis of Pan African's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pan African's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pan stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Pan Stock

Pan African financial ratios help investors to determine whether Pan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Pan with respect to the benefits of owning Pan African security.