Aggressive Growth Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| PAGDX Fund | USD 106.20 1.39 1.33% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aggressive Growth Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 106.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.88. Aggressive Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Aggressive |
Aggressive Growth Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aggressive Growth Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 106.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.05, mean absolute percentage error of 2.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aggressive Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aggressive Growth's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aggressive Growth Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Aggressive Growth Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aggressive Growth's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aggressive Growth's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 105.02 and 107.38, respectively. We have considered Aggressive Growth's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aggressive Growth mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aggressive Growth mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1878 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2252 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0487 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.01 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 61.875 |
Predictive Modules for Aggressive Growth
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aggressive Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aggressive Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Aggressive Growth
For every potential investor in Aggressive, whether a beginner or expert, Aggressive Growth's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aggressive Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aggressive. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aggressive Growth's price trends.Aggressive Growth Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aggressive Growth mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aggressive Growth could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aggressive Growth by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aggressive Growth Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aggressive Growth's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aggressive Growth's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aggressive Growth Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aggressive Growth mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aggressive Growth shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aggressive Growth mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aggressive Growth Portfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 106.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 106.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.7 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.39 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 69.36 |
Aggressive Growth Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aggressive Growth's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aggressive Growth's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aggressive mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8201 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Variance | 1.39 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Aggressive Mutual Fund
Aggressive Growth financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aggressive Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aggressive with respect to the benefits of owning Aggressive Growth security.
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