OSRAM LICHT Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| OSR Stock | EUR 51.80 0.20 0.38% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of OSRAM LICHT N on the next trading day is expected to be 51.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.12. OSRAM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
OSRAM |
OSRAM LICHT Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of OSRAM LICHT N on the next trading day is expected to be 51.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OSRAM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OSRAM LICHT's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
OSRAM LICHT Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest OSRAM LICHT | OSRAM LICHT Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
OSRAM LICHT Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting OSRAM LICHT's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OSRAM LICHT's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.53 and 51.97, respectively. We have considered OSRAM LICHT's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OSRAM LICHT stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OSRAM LICHT stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2304 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0676 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.1231 |
Predictive Modules for OSRAM LICHT
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OSRAM LICHT N. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for OSRAM LICHT
For every potential investor in OSRAM, whether a beginner or expert, OSRAM LICHT's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OSRAM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OSRAM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OSRAM LICHT's price trends.OSRAM LICHT Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OSRAM LICHT stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OSRAM LICHT could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OSRAM LICHT by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
OSRAM LICHT N Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of OSRAM LICHT's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of OSRAM LICHT's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
OSRAM LICHT Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OSRAM LICHT stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OSRAM LICHT shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OSRAM LICHT stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OSRAM LICHT N entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
OSRAM LICHT Risk Indicators
The analysis of OSRAM LICHT's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OSRAM LICHT's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting osram stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.159 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2286 | |||
| Variance | 0.0523 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1733 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.02) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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OSRAM LICHT financial ratios help investors to determine whether OSRAM Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in OSRAM with respect to the benefits of owning OSRAM LICHT security.