Optima Prima Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

OPMS Stock  IDR 50.00  1.00  1.96%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Optima Prima Metal on the next trading day is expected to be 50.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.00. Optima Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Optima Prima simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Optima Prima Metal are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Optima Prima Metal prices get older.

Optima Prima Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Optima Prima Metal on the next trading day is expected to be 50.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.13, mean absolute percentage error of 10.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 130.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Optima Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Optima Prima's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Optima Prima Stock Forecast Pattern

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Optima Prima Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Optima Prima's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Optima Prima's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.15 and 53.85, respectively. We have considered Optima Prima's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
50.00
50.00
Expected Value
53.85
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Optima Prima stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Optima Prima stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.4293
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.8525
MADMean absolute deviation2.1311
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0288
SAESum of the absolute errors130.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Optima Prima Metal forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Optima Prima observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Optima Prima

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Optima Prima Metal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
46.1550.0053.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
44.1548.0051.85
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
49.6850.6451.60
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Optima Prima

For every potential investor in Optima, whether a beginner or expert, Optima Prima's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Optima Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Optima. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Optima Prima's price trends.

Optima Prima Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Optima Prima stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Optima Prima could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Optima Prima by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Optima Prima Metal Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Optima Prima's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Optima Prima's current price.

Optima Prima Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Optima Prima stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Optima Prima shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Optima Prima stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Optima Prima Metal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Optima Prima Risk Indicators

The analysis of Optima Prima's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Optima Prima's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting optima stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Optima Stock

Optima Prima financial ratios help investors to determine whether Optima Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Optima with respect to the benefits of owning Optima Prima security.