Molson Coors Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NY7 Stock  EUR 56.12  0.24  0.43%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Molson Coors Brewing on the next trading day is expected to be 56.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.63. Molson Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Molson Coors' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Molson Coors is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Molson Coors Brewing value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Molson Coors Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Molson Coors Brewing on the next trading day is expected to be 56.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Molson Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Molson Coors' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Molson Coors Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Molson CoorsMolson Coors Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Molson Coors Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Molson Coors' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Molson Coors' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.77 and 57.69, respectively. We have considered Molson Coors' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
56.12
56.23
Expected Value
57.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Molson Coors stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Molson Coors stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.554
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9284
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0173
SAESum of the absolute errors56.6334
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Molson Coors Brewing. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Molson Coors. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Molson Coors

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Molson Coors Brewing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
54.6656.1257.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
50.5165.1366.59
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Molson Coors

For every potential investor in Molson, whether a beginner or expert, Molson Coors' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Molson Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Molson. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Molson Coors' price trends.

Molson Coors Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Molson Coors stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Molson Coors could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Molson Coors by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Molson Coors Brewing Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Molson Coors' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Molson Coors' current price.

Molson Coors Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Molson Coors stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Molson Coors shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Molson Coors stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Molson Coors Brewing entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Molson Coors Risk Indicators

The analysis of Molson Coors' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Molson Coors' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting molson stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Molson Stock

When determining whether Molson Coors Brewing is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Molson Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Molson Coors Brewing Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Molson Coors Brewing Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Molson Coors to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Molson Coors' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Molson Coors is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Molson Coors' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.