National Refinery Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

Triple exponential smoothing for National Refinery - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When National Refinery prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in National Refinery price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of National Refinery.

National Refinery Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Refinery on the next trading day is expected to be 272.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.80, mean absolute percentage error of 41.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 287.84.

National Refinery Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Refinery stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Refinery stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past National Refinery observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older National Refinery observations.

Predictive Modules for National Refinery

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Refinery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 268.16 270.94 273.72 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 268.25 271.03 273.81 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 262.99 268.32 273.66 Details

Other Forecasting Options for National Refinery

For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Refinery's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Refinery's price trends.

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National Refinery Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Refinery's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Refinery's current price.

National Refinery Market Strength Events

National Refinery Risk Indicators

Pair Trading with National Refinery

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if National Refinery position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in National Refinery will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

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