National Refinery Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NRL Stock   270.94  4.26  1.60%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Refinery on the next trading day is expected to be 272.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 287.84. National Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for National Refinery - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When National Refinery prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in National Refinery price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of National Refinery.

National Refinery Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of National Refinery on the next trading day is expected to be 272.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.80, mean absolute percentage error of 41.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 287.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Refinery's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

National Refinery Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest National RefineryNational Refinery Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

National Refinery Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting National Refinery's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Refinery's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 269.55 and 275.12, respectively. We have considered National Refinery's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
270.94
269.55
Downside
272.33
Expected Value
275.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Refinery stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Refinery stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.1037
MADMean absolute deviation4.7973
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0211
SAESum of the absolute errors287.8361
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past National Refinery observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older National Refinery observations.

Predictive Modules for National Refinery

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Refinery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
268.16270.94273.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
268.25271.03273.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
262.99268.32273.66
Details

Other Forecasting Options for National Refinery

For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Refinery's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Refinery's price trends.

National Refinery Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Refinery stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Refinery could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Refinery by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

National Refinery Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of National Refinery's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of National Refinery's current price.

National Refinery Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Refinery stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Refinery shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Refinery stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Refinery entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

National Refinery Risk Indicators

The analysis of National Refinery's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Refinery's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with National Refinery

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if National Refinery position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in National Refinery will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with National Stock

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  0.71MARI Mari Petroleum SplitPairCorr
  0.92LOADS LoadsPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to National Refinery could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace National Refinery when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back National Refinery - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling National Refinery to buy it.
The correlation of National Refinery is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as National Refinery moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if National Refinery moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for National Refinery can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for National Stock Analysis

When running National Refinery's price analysis, check to measure National Refinery's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Refinery is operating at the current time. Most of National Refinery's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Refinery's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Refinery's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Refinery to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.