NRG Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NRA Stock  EUR 85.04  1.38  1.60%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of NRG Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 83.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.00. NRG Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of NRG Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for NRG Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of NRG Energy value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

NRG Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NRG Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 83.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.52, mean absolute percentage error of 4.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NRG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NRG Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

NRG Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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NRG Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting NRG Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NRG Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 80.83 and 85.94, respectively. We have considered NRG Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
85.04
83.38
Expected Value
85.94
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NRG Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NRG Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.5165
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5246
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0179
SAESum of the absolute errors93.0021
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of NRG Energy. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict NRG Energy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for NRG Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NRG Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
82.4885.0487.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
83.4886.0488.60
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
84.3391.6198.89
Details

Other Forecasting Options for NRG Energy

For every potential investor in NRG, whether a beginner or expert, NRG Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NRG Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NRG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NRG Energy's price trends.

NRG Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NRG Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NRG Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NRG Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

NRG Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NRG Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NRG Energy's current price.

NRG Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NRG Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NRG Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NRG Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NRG Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

NRG Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of NRG Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NRG Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nrg stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in NRG Stock

When determining whether NRG Energy is a strong investment it is important to analyze NRG Energy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact NRG Energy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding NRG Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NRG Energy to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in NRG Stock please use our How to Invest in NRG Energy guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NRG Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NRG Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NRG Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.