Mondi PLC Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MONDY Stock  USD 30.45  0.03  0.1%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mondi PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 30.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.90. Mondi Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Mondi PLC simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Mondi PLC ADR are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Mondi PLC ADR prices get older.

Mondi PLC Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mondi PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 30.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.90.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mondi Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mondi PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mondi PLC Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Mondi PLC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mondi PLC's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mondi PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.46 and 32.44, respectively. We have considered Mondi PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.45
30.45
Expected Value
32.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mondi PLC pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mondi PLC pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.5847
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1177
MADMean absolute deviation0.515
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.015
SAESum of the absolute errors30.9
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Mondi PLC ADR forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Mondi PLC observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Mondi PLC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mondi PLC ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mondi PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.4630.4532.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.2132.2034.19
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
29.8330.2930.75
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Mondi PLC

For every potential investor in Mondi, whether a beginner or expert, Mondi PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mondi Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mondi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mondi PLC's price trends.

Mondi PLC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mondi PLC pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mondi PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mondi PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mondi PLC ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mondi PLC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mondi PLC's current price.

Mondi PLC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mondi PLC pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mondi PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mondi PLC pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Mondi PLC ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mondi PLC Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mondi PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mondi PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mondi pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Mondi Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Mondi PLC's price analysis, check to measure Mondi PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mondi PLC is operating at the current time. Most of Mondi PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mondi PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mondi PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mondi PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.