Meritage Homes Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MEY Stock | EUR 78.50 1.50 1.95% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meritage Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 81.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 117.13. Meritage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Meritage Homes' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Meritage |
Meritage Homes Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meritage Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 81.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89, mean absolute percentage error of 5.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 117.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Meritage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Meritage Homes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Meritage Homes Stock Forecast Pattern
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Meritage Homes Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Meritage Homes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Meritage Homes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 79.26 and 83.47, respectively. We have considered Meritage Homes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Meritage Homes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Meritage Homes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.6341 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8892 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0229 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 117.1276 |
Predictive Modules for Meritage Homes
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Meritage Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Meritage Homes
For every potential investor in Meritage, whether a beginner or expert, Meritage Homes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Meritage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Meritage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Meritage Homes' price trends.Meritage Homes Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Meritage Homes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Meritage Homes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Meritage Homes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Meritage Homes Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Meritage Homes' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Meritage Homes' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Meritage Homes Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Meritage Homes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Meritage Homes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Meritage Homes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Meritage Homes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 78.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 78.5 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.75 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.5 |
Meritage Homes Risk Indicators
The analysis of Meritage Homes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Meritage Homes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting meritage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Meritage Stock
Meritage Homes financial ratios help investors to determine whether Meritage Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Meritage with respect to the benefits of owning Meritage Homes security.