MDC Holdings Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MDCDelisted Stock  USD 47.05  0.59  1.27%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MDC Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 47.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.46. MDC Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MDC Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of MDC Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MDC Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
MDC Holdings polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for MDC Holdings as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

MDC Holdings Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of MDC Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 47.53 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MDC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MDC Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

MDC Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest MDC HoldingsMDC Holdings Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MDC Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MDC Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3173
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.9255
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0212
SAESum of the absolute errors56.458
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the MDC Holdings historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for MDC Holdings

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MDC Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MDC Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47.0547.0547.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
38.7738.7751.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
46.1347.1148.08
Details

MDC Holdings Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MDC Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MDC Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MDC Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

MDC Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MDC Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MDC Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MDC Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MDC Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

MDC Holdings Risk Indicators

The analysis of MDC Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MDC Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mdc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.
You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

Other Consideration for investing in MDC Stock

If you are still planning to invest in MDC Holdings check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the MDC Holdings' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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