Lazard Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

LZEMX Fund  USD 19.00  0.06  0.32%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lazard Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 18.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.48. Lazard Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Lazard Emerging - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Lazard Emerging prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Lazard Emerging price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Lazard Emerging Markets.

Lazard Emerging Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lazard Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 18.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lazard Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lazard Emerging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lazard Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Lazard EmergingLazard Emerging Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Lazard Emerging Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lazard Emerging's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lazard Emerging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.08 and 19.91, respectively. We have considered Lazard Emerging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.00
18.99
Expected Value
19.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lazard Emerging mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lazard Emerging mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0219
MADMean absolute deviation0.1437
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0073
SAESum of the absolute errors8.4781
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Lazard Emerging observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Lazard Emerging Markets observations.

Predictive Modules for Lazard Emerging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lazard Emerging Markets. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.0919.0019.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.2519.1620.07
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.8418.9319.03
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Lazard Emerging

For every potential investor in Lazard, whether a beginner or expert, Lazard Emerging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lazard Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lazard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lazard Emerging's price trends.

Lazard Emerging Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lazard Emerging mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lazard Emerging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lazard Emerging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lazard Emerging Markets Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lazard Emerging's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lazard Emerging's current price.

Lazard Emerging Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lazard Emerging mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lazard Emerging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lazard Emerging mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Lazard Emerging Markets entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lazard Emerging Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lazard Emerging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lazard Emerging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lazard mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Lazard Mutual Fund

Lazard Emerging financial ratios help investors to determine whether Lazard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Lazard with respect to the benefits of owning Lazard Emerging security.
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Price Exposure Probability
Analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume