LOREAL ADR Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

LORA Stock  EUR 66.50  1.00  1.48%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of LOREAL ADR 15EO on the next trading day is expected to be 68.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.84. LOREAL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of LOREAL ADR's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
LOREAL ADR polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for LOREAL ADR 15EO as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

LOREAL ADR Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of LOREAL ADR 15EO on the next trading day is expected to be 68.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.13, mean absolute percentage error of 1.95, and the sum of the absolute errors of 68.84.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LOREAL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LOREAL ADR's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

LOREAL ADR Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Oct 1Oct 9Oct 17Oct 25Nov 4Nov 12Nov 20Nov 28Dec 6Dec 1565707580
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15LOREAL ADR 15EO LOREAL ADR 15EO forecast
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LOREAL ADR Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting LOREAL ADR's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LOREAL ADR's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.27 and 70.02, respectively. We have considered LOREAL ADR's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
66.50
68.15
Expected Value
70.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LOREAL ADR stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LOREAL ADR stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.7808
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.1285
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0161
SAESum of the absolute errors68.8368
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the LOREAL ADR historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for LOREAL ADR

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LOREAL ADR 15EO. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
64.6266.5068.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
56.2958.1773.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
63.2566.4369.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as LOREAL ADR. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against LOREAL ADR's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, LOREAL ADR's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in LOREAL ADR 15EO.

Other Forecasting Options for LOREAL ADR

For every potential investor in LOREAL, whether a beginner or expert, LOREAL ADR's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LOREAL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LOREAL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LOREAL ADR's price trends.

LOREAL ADR Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LOREAL ADR stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LOREAL ADR could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LOREAL ADR by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

LOREAL ADR 15EO Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LOREAL ADR's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LOREAL ADR's current price.

LOREAL ADR Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LOREAL ADR stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LOREAL ADR shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LOREAL ADR stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LOREAL ADR 15EO entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

LOREAL ADR Risk Indicators

The analysis of LOREAL ADR's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LOREAL ADR's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting loreal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in LOREAL Stock

LOREAL ADR financial ratios help investors to determine whether LOREAL Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in LOREAL with respect to the benefits of owning LOREAL ADR security.

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