Legrand SA Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

LGRVF Stock  USD 99.16  2.88  2.82%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Legrand SA on the next trading day is expected to be 100.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.57. Legrand Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Legrand SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Legrand SA is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Legrand SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Legrand SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Legrand SA on the next trading day is expected to be 100.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 50.57.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Legrand Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Legrand SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Legrand SA Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Legrand SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Legrand SA's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Legrand SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 98.79 and 101.29, respectively. We have considered Legrand SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
99.16
100.04
Expected Value
101.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Legrand SA pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Legrand SA pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.4126
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.829
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0077
SAESum of the absolute errors50.5712
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Legrand SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Legrand SA. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Legrand SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Legrand SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Legrand SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
100.79102.04103.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
86.5787.82112.24
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
100.50103.41106.31
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Legrand SA

For every potential investor in Legrand, whether a beginner or expert, Legrand SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Legrand Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Legrand. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Legrand SA's price trends.

Legrand SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Legrand SA pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Legrand SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Legrand SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Legrand SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Legrand SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Legrand SA's current price.

Legrand SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Legrand SA pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Legrand SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Legrand SA pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Legrand SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Legrand SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Legrand SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Legrand SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting legrand pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Legrand Pink Sheet

Legrand SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Legrand Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Legrand with respect to the benefits of owning Legrand SA security.