H M Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HMSB Stock   13.29  0.28  2.06%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of H M Hennes on the next trading day is expected to be 12.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.62. HMSB Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast H M stock prices and determine the direction of H M Hennes's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of H M's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for H M is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of H M Hennes value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

H M Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of H M Hennes on the next trading day is expected to be 12.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.30, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HMSB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that H M's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

H M Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest H MH M Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

H M Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting H M's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. H M's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.37 and 16.42, respectively. We have considered H M's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.29
12.90
Expected Value
16.42
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of H M stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent H M stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.9138
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4036
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0333
SAESum of the absolute errors24.6168
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of H M Hennes. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict H M. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for H M

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as H M Hennes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.7713.2916.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.1812.7016.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.0213.1513.28
Details

Other Forecasting Options for H M

For every potential investor in HMSB, whether a beginner or expert, H M's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. HMSB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in HMSB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying H M's price trends.

H M Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with H M stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of H M could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing H M by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

H M Hennes Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of H M's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of H M's current price.

H M Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how H M stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading H M shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying H M stock market strength indicators, traders can identify H M Hennes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

H M Risk Indicators

The analysis of H M's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in H M's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hmsb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in HMSB Stock

H M financial ratios help investors to determine whether HMSB Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in HMSB with respect to the benefits of owning H M security.