Helix Energy Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

HLX Stock  USD 9.26  0.16  1.76%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Helix Energy Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 9.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.45. Helix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Helix Energy's Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to rise to 0.83 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 5.43 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 125.7 M in 2024. Net Loss is likely to rise to about (75.1 M) in 2024.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Helix Energy's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1995-12-31
Previous Quarter
275.1 M
Current Value
324.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
184.3 M
 
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Covid
A naive forecasting model for Helix Energy is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Helix Energy Solutions value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Helix Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Helix Energy Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 9.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Helix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Helix Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Helix Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Helix Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Helix Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Helix Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.22 and 12.07, respectively. We have considered Helix Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9.26
9.64
Expected Value
12.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Helix Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Helix Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.1748
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2008
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0198
SAESum of the absolute errors12.4477
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Helix Energy Solutions. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Helix Energy. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Helix Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Helix Energy Solutions. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.829.2411.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.1811.6014.02
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.2913.5014.99
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.100.090.11
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Helix Energy

For every potential investor in Helix, whether a beginner or expert, Helix Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Helix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Helix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Helix Energy's price trends.

Helix Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Helix Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Helix Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Helix Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Helix Energy Solutions Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Helix Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Helix Energy's current price.

Helix Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Helix Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Helix Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Helix Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Helix Energy Solutions entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Helix Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Helix Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Helix Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting helix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Helix Stock Analysis

When running Helix Energy's price analysis, check to measure Helix Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Helix Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Helix Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Helix Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Helix Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Helix Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.