Hongkong Land Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

HLH Stock  EUR 4.10  0.06  1.44%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hongkong Land Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 4.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.44. Hongkong Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hongkong Land's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Hongkong Land works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Hongkong Land Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Hongkong Land Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 4.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hongkong Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hongkong Land's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hongkong Land Stock Forecast Pattern

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Hongkong Land Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hongkong Land's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hongkong Land's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.12 and 7.08, respectively. We have considered Hongkong Land's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.10
4.10
Expected Value
7.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hongkong Land stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hongkong Land stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0216
MADMean absolute deviation0.0923
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0227
SAESum of the absolute errors5.445
When Hongkong Land Holdings prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Hongkong Land Holdings trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Hongkong Land observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Hongkong Land

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hongkong Land Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.124.107.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.343.326.30
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Hongkong Land

For every potential investor in Hongkong, whether a beginner or expert, Hongkong Land's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hongkong Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hongkong. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hongkong Land's price trends.

Hongkong Land Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hongkong Land stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hongkong Land could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hongkong Land by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hongkong Land Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hongkong Land's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hongkong Land's current price.

Hongkong Land Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hongkong Land stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hongkong Land shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hongkong Land stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hongkong Land Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hongkong Land Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hongkong Land's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hongkong Land's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hongkong stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Hongkong Stock

Hongkong Land financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hongkong Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hongkong with respect to the benefits of owning Hongkong Land security.