Highlands Bankshares Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

HBSI Stock  USD 32.82  0.18  0.55%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Highlands Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 32.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.36. Highlands Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Highlands Bankshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Highlands Bankshares - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Highlands Bankshares prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Highlands Bankshares price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Highlands Bankshares.

Highlands Bankshares Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Highlands Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 32.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Highlands Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Highlands Bankshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Highlands Bankshares Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Highlands Bankshares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Highlands Bankshares' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Highlands Bankshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.97 and 33.69, respectively. We have considered Highlands Bankshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.82
32.83
Expected Value
33.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Highlands Bankshares pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Highlands Bankshares pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0384
MADMean absolute deviation0.2095
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0067
SAESum of the absolute errors12.3618
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Highlands Bankshares observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Highlands Bankshares observations.

Predictive Modules for Highlands Bankshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Highlands Bankshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Highlands Bankshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.9632.8233.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
31.2032.0632.92
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Highlands Bankshares

For every potential investor in Highlands, whether a beginner or expert, Highlands Bankshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Highlands Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Highlands. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Highlands Bankshares' price trends.

Highlands Bankshares Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Highlands Bankshares pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Highlands Bankshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Highlands Bankshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Highlands Bankshares Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Highlands Bankshares' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Highlands Bankshares' current price.

Highlands Bankshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Highlands Bankshares pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Highlands Bankshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Highlands Bankshares pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Highlands Bankshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Highlands Bankshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of Highlands Bankshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Highlands Bankshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting highlands pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Highlands Pink Sheet

Highlands Bankshares financial ratios help investors to determine whether Highlands Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Highlands with respect to the benefits of owning Highlands Bankshares security.