Victory Rs Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

GUBGX Fund  USD 15.77  0.03  0.19%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Victory Rs International on the next trading day is expected to be 16.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.08. Victory Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Victory Rs is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Victory Rs International value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Victory Rs Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Victory Rs International on the next trading day is expected to be 16.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.08.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Victory Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Victory Rs' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Victory Rs Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Victory Rs Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Victory Rs' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Victory Rs' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.22 and 16.92, respectively. We have considered Victory Rs' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.77
16.07
Expected Value
16.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Victory Rs mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Victory Rs mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8687
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0996
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0063
SAESum of the absolute errors6.078
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Victory Rs International. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Victory Rs. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Victory Rs

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Victory Rs International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.9215.7716.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.9715.8216.67
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Victory Rs. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Victory Rs' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Victory Rs' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Victory Rs International.

Other Forecasting Options for Victory Rs

For every potential investor in Victory, whether a beginner or expert, Victory Rs' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Victory Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Victory. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Victory Rs' price trends.

Victory Rs Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Victory Rs mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Victory Rs could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Victory Rs by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Victory Rs International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Victory Rs' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Victory Rs' current price.

Victory Rs Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Victory Rs mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Victory Rs shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Victory Rs mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Victory Rs International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Victory Rs Risk Indicators

The analysis of Victory Rs' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Victory Rs' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting victory mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Victory Mutual Fund

Victory Rs financial ratios help investors to determine whether Victory Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Victory with respect to the benefits of owning Victory Rs security.
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