Medium Duration Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| GMDYX Fund | USD 12.67 0.05 0.39% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Medium Duration Bond Institutional on the next trading day is expected to be 12.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.72. Medium Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Medium |
Medium Duration Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 17th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Medium Duration Bond Institutional on the next trading day is expected to be 12.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Medium Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Medium Duration's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Medium Duration Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Medium Duration | Medium Duration Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Medium Duration Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Medium Duration's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Medium Duration's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.37 and 12.97, respectively. We have considered Medium Duration's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Medium Duration mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Medium Duration mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.8473 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0067 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0287 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0022 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.72 |
Predictive Modules for Medium Duration
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Medium Duration Bond. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Medium Duration's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Medium Duration
For every potential investor in Medium, whether a beginner or expert, Medium Duration's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Medium Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Medium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Medium Duration's price trends.Medium Duration Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Medium Duration mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Medium Duration could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Medium Duration by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Medium Duration Bond Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Medium Duration's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Medium Duration's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Medium Duration Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Medium Duration mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Medium Duration shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Medium Duration mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Medium Duration Bond Institutional entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.05) |
Medium Duration Risk Indicators
The analysis of Medium Duration's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Medium Duration's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting medium mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.2206 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3055 | |||
| Variance | 0.0933 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Medium Mutual Fund
Medium Duration financial ratios help investors to determine whether Medium Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Medium with respect to the benefits of owning Medium Duration security.
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