Guardant Health Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GH Stock | USD 35.61 0.51 1.45% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guardant Health on the next trading day is expected to be 35.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77 and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.82. Guardant Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Guardant Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Guardant |
Guardant Health Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Guardant Health's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2016-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1 B | Current Value 688.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 363.3 M |
Guardant Health Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 1st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Guardant Health on the next trading day is expected to be 35.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.77, mean absolute percentage error of 1.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 47.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Guardant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Guardant Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Guardant Health Stock Forecast Pattern
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Guardant Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Guardant Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Guardant Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.97 and 39.67, respectively. We have considered Guardant Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Guardant Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Guardant Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9502 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7713 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0303 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 47.8198 |
Predictive Modules for Guardant Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Guardant Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Guardant Health
For every potential investor in Guardant, whether a beginner or expert, Guardant Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Guardant Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Guardant. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Guardant Health's price trends.Guardant Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Guardant Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Guardant Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Guardant Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Guardant Health Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Guardant Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Guardant Health's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Guardant Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Guardant Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Guardant Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Guardant Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Guardant Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Guardant Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Guardant Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guardant Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting guardant stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.81 | |||
| Variance | 14.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Guardant Health to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Guardant Stock please use our How to Invest in Guardant Health guide.You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guardant Health. If investors know Guardant will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guardant Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (4.28) | Revenue Per Share 5.7 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.339 | Return On Assets (0.16) | Return On Equity (6.09) |
The market value of Guardant Health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guardant that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guardant Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guardant Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guardant Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guardant Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guardant Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guardant Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guardant Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.