Generation Bio Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GBIO Stock | USD 1.52 0.09 6.29% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Generation Bio Co on the next trading day is expected to be 1.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.88. Generation Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Generation Bio's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Generation Bio's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Generation Bio fundamentals over time.
Generation |
Generation Bio Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Generation Bio's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2019-12-31 | Previous Quarter 28.5 M | Current Value 21.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 134.6 M |
Generation Bio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Generation Bio Co on the next trading day is expected to be 1.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Generation Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Generation Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Generation Bio Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Generation Bio | Generation Bio Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Generation Bio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Generation Bio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Generation Bio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 6.73, respectively. We have considered Generation Bio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Generation Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Generation Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8542 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0964 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0453 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.879 |
Predictive Modules for Generation Bio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Generation Bio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Generation Bio
For every potential investor in Generation, whether a beginner or expert, Generation Bio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Generation Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Generation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Generation Bio's price trends.Generation Bio Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Generation Bio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Generation Bio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Generation Bio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Generation Bio Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Generation Bio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Generation Bio's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Generation Bio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Generation Bio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Generation Bio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Generation Bio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Generation Bio Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Generation Bio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Generation Bio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Generation Bio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting generation stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.14 | |||
| Variance | 26.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Generation Bio
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Generation Bio position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Generation Bio will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Generation Stock
| 0.8 | BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | ESPR | Esperion Therapeutics Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | VTRS | Viatris | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | GILD | Gilead Sciences | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | WAT | Waters | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Generation Bio could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Generation Bio when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Generation Bio - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Generation Bio Co to buy it.
The correlation of Generation Bio is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Generation Bio moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Generation Bio moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Generation Bio can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Generation Bio to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Generation Bio. If investors know Generation will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Generation Bio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (2.19) | Revenue Per Share 0.28 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.52 | Return On Assets (0.19) | Return On Equity (0.86) |
The market value of Generation Bio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Generation that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Generation Bio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Generation Bio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Generation Bio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Generation Bio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Generation Bio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Generation Bio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Generation Bio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.