Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FVI Stock | CAD 6.75 0.01 0.15% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 7.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.15. Fortuna Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Fortuna Silver's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fortuna Silver's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fortuna Silver fundamentals over time.
Fortuna |
Fortuna Silver Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fortuna Silver Mines on the next trading day is expected to be 7.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fortuna Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fortuna Silver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fortuna Silver Stock Forecast Pattern
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Fortuna Silver Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fortuna Silver's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fortuna Silver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.16 and 10.48, respectively. We have considered Fortuna Silver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fortuna Silver stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fortuna Silver stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5712 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.232 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0348 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.1494 |
Predictive Modules for Fortuna Silver
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fortuna Silver Mines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Fortuna Silver
For every potential investor in Fortuna, whether a beginner or expert, Fortuna Silver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fortuna Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fortuna. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fortuna Silver's price trends.Fortuna Silver Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fortuna Silver stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fortuna Silver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fortuna Silver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fortuna Silver Mines Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fortuna Silver's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fortuna Silver's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Fortuna Silver Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fortuna Silver stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fortuna Silver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fortuna Silver stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fortuna Silver Mines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fortuna Silver Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fortuna Silver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fortuna Silver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fortuna stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.26 | |||
| Variance | 10.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Fortuna Silver
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Fortuna Silver position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Fortuna Silver will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Fortuna Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Fortuna Silver could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Fortuna Silver when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Fortuna Silver - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Fortuna Silver Mines to buy it.
The correlation of Fortuna Silver is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Fortuna Silver moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Fortuna Silver Mines moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Fortuna Silver can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fortuna Silver to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.