Fidelity Advisor Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

FRQYX Fund  USD 52.61  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity Advisor Managed on the next trading day is expected to be 52.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Fidelity Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Fidelity Advisor is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fidelity Advisor Managed value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Fidelity Advisor Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of January 2025

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelity Advisor Managed on the next trading day is expected to be 52.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidelity Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidelity Advisor's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fidelity Advisor Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelity Advisor mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelity Advisor mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria54.341
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Fidelity Advisor Managed. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Fidelity Advisor. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Fidelity Advisor

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelity Advisor Managed. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Advisor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
52.6152.6152.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
52.6152.6152.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
52.6152.6152.61
Details

Fidelity Advisor Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fidelity Advisor mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fidelity Advisor could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fidelity Advisor by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fidelity Advisor Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fidelity Advisor mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fidelity Advisor shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fidelity Advisor mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Fidelity Advisor Managed entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Fidelity Mutual Fund

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