Fertilizantes Heringer Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

FHER3 Stock  BRL 6.84  0.16  2.29%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fertilizantes Heringer SA on the next trading day is expected to be 6.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.39. Fertilizantes Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A two period moving average forecast for Fertilizantes Heringer is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Fertilizantes Heringer Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fertilizantes Heringer SA on the next trading day is expected to be 6.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.39.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fertilizantes Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fertilizantes Heringer's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Fertilizantes Heringer Stock Forecast Pattern

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Fertilizantes Heringer Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Fertilizantes Heringer's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fertilizantes Heringer's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.07 and 19.74, respectively. We have considered Fertilizantes Heringer's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.84
6.84
Expected Value
19.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fertilizantes Heringer stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fertilizantes Heringer stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.801
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0738
MADMean absolute deviation0.2609
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0404
SAESum of the absolute errors15.395
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Fertilizantes Heringer SA price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Fertilizantes Heringer. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Fertilizantes Heringer

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fertilizantes Heringer. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.346.8419.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.336.5419.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fertilizantes Heringer. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fertilizantes Heringer's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fertilizantes Heringer's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Fertilizantes Heringer.

Other Forecasting Options for Fertilizantes Heringer

For every potential investor in Fertilizantes, whether a beginner or expert, Fertilizantes Heringer's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fertilizantes Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fertilizantes. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fertilizantes Heringer's price trends.

Fertilizantes Heringer Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fertilizantes Heringer stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fertilizantes Heringer could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fertilizantes Heringer by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Fertilizantes Heringer Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fertilizantes Heringer's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fertilizantes Heringer's current price.

Fertilizantes Heringer Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fertilizantes Heringer stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fertilizantes Heringer shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fertilizantes Heringer stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fertilizantes Heringer SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Fertilizantes Heringer Risk Indicators

The analysis of Fertilizantes Heringer's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fertilizantes Heringer's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fertilizantes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Fertilizantes Stock Analysis

When running Fertilizantes Heringer's price analysis, check to measure Fertilizantes Heringer's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fertilizantes Heringer is operating at the current time. Most of Fertilizantes Heringer's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fertilizantes Heringer's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fertilizantes Heringer's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fertilizantes Heringer to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.