Foreign Trade Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FDC Stock | 16,850 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Foreign Trade Development on the next trading day is expected to be 16,155 with a mean absolute deviation of 467.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28,514. Foreign Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Foreign |
Foreign Trade Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2025
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Foreign Trade Development on the next trading day is expected to be 16,155 with a mean absolute deviation of 467.45, mean absolute percentage error of 379,403, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28,514.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Foreign Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Foreign Trade's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Foreign Trade Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Foreign Trade | Foreign Trade Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Foreign Trade stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Foreign Trade stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 130.9569 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 467.4475 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0305 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28514.2959 |
Predictive Modules for Foreign Trade
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Foreign Trade Development. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Foreign Trade Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Foreign Trade stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Foreign Trade could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Foreign Trade by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Foreign Trade Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Foreign Trade stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Foreign Trade shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Foreign Trade stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Foreign Trade Development entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16850.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16850.0 |
Foreign Trade Risk Indicators
The analysis of Foreign Trade's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Foreign Trade's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting foreign stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.4 | |||
| Variance | 19.35 | |||
| Downside Variance | 35.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.0 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.61) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Foreign Trade
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Foreign Trade position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Foreign Trade will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Foreign Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Foreign Trade could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Foreign Trade when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Foreign Trade - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Foreign Trade Development to buy it.
The correlation of Foreign Trade is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Foreign Trade moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Foreign Trade Development moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Foreign Trade can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Foreign Stock
Foreign Trade financial ratios help investors to determine whether Foreign Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Foreign with respect to the benefits of owning Foreign Trade security.