CBOE Euro Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

Summary

EVZ Index

7.51 0.00 0.00%

The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CBOE Euro Currency on the next trading day is expected to be 7.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.91. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast CBOE Euro's index prices and determine the direction of CBOE Euro Currency's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.

A naive forecasting model for CBOE Euro is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CBOE Euro Currency value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

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CBOE Euro Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CBOE Euro Currency on the next trading day is expected to be 7.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 1.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.91.

Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CBOE Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CBOE Euro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CBOE Euro Index Forecast Pattern

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CBOE Euro index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CBOE Euro index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	118.2141
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.6542
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0892
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	39.9051

This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CBOE Euro Currency. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CBOE Euro. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CBOE Euro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CBOE Euro Currency. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

CBOE Euro Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CBOE Euro index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CBOE Euro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CBOE Euro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Merit Medical Systems JBG SMITH Properties China Clean Energy Dave Busters Entertainment Boston Properties Ubisoft Entertainment Capital Clean Energy Avery Dennison Corp American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup SentinelOne CVS Health Corp

Risk & Return

Correlation

CBOE Euro Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CBOE Euro index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CBOE Euro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CBOE Euro index market strength indicators, traders can identify CBOE Euro Currency entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	7.51
	Day Typical Price	7.51
	Relative Strength Index	49.62

CBOE Euro Risk Indicators

The analysis of CBOE Euro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CBOE Euro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cboe index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

	Mean Deviation	4.23
	Standard Deviation	10.51
	Variance	110.41

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

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